Related to the same point above:
It’s a fair point but i think that Kleros as a subjective oracle is not entering in the legal prohibition from french / european juridiction with the right approach. The prohibition is for doing gambling and/or participate in/promote gambling. As a dispute resolution mechanism, focusing on CM but usable by any protocol we’re not in the stream of gambling. We do provide dispute resolution, and protocols can use our solution. Moreover, if we focus on conditional market (which are not prediction market as the legislator hears it), we’ll be cleared. Finally, we can be seen as actors who participate in the regulation of PM.
It’s not about the protocol itself; It’s about Cooperative directly being engaged with PM/CM activities Coop has Seer tokens, Seer looks like a Kleros frontend, Seer’s reviewers are mostly Kleros, Foresight is considered an extension / demo. Seer launching was exclusively “beneficial” for Kleros apps (free money on PoH) and so on.
An anon team and a DAO to cover I really don’t think its enough to protect the reputation of court and coop.
Cooperative has a locked up treasury, that Coop gets tax benefits as long as that treasury was used for the development as stated out in the Coop statutes in article 2.
If it turns out that instead treasury expenditures, in whatever form, is directly going to PM-like markets, especially when it’s also done in public and so much marketed by the Kleros team, it drastically ups the risk for both losing focus and breaching the mission as stated in the statues.
The reasonable course of action is absolute neutrality from Cooperative; spin off the risks.
I disagree, it’s not just pure speculation. Speculation can be an effective way of price discovering, because it’s not obvious what should be the valuation of a company. Right now on AI we see huge speculation, but it’s also driven by price discovery as we don’t know the future. The pure speculation is if it’s a 0 sum game environment with a finite game, i’m not sure crypto will go to 0.
It’s absolutely fair and crucial to question the viability of the crypto market, but it’s too easy to say it’s pure speculation. Bad momentum can lead to very low valuation (for instance the “stock values” of the traditional economy underperform compared to the “AI stock”, not because they produce less well (their balance sheets have not evolved less well), but because financiers reallocate their capital to companies they consider promising for the future in order to position themselves (but we can expect a return on these “value” stocks).
Interest in PMs waned after the US presidential election because people thought the volumes were localized to that political event. The future has shown us otherwise; the volumes are still there, but UMA has lost momentum (2025 dramas), preventing it I think from keeping up with the increasing volumes of PMs.
You really like to use Value Capture, it’s for sure an interesting concept but why were you sharing just “just some breadcrumbs” with ttps://t.me/kleros/197187, Telegram: View @kleros + Telegram: View @kleros when you argue for Kleros “Value Capture” (if i understand it well) prospectives ? Sounds quite abstracts from small signals of famous persons (some absolutely relevant i agree) but just talking about Kleros, and some observations of adoption that are not impacting Kleros so far (i’d love to have more data/proofs by the way).
It’s well known that bear market is a market behavior, price discovery leads to bear/bull market. Crypto (and any business) has to demonstrate utility in order to not go to 0. I think PM is demonstrating it (even if it’s absolutely not what i want to see for PM, in short i want PM to be CM). And any crypto project even relevant suffer from the whole crypto market (cf Hyperliquid imo).
it’s not my point, and i’ve no doubt that relevant crypto projects will decorrelated from the whole crypto market (meaning in the future i think Bitcoin/Ethereum prices will way less affect the whole market, cf Hyperliquid again).
Dramas + lack of proper marketing + lack of the momentum lead to that, but if they keep growing and securing PMs and generating revenues it’s sure that they will go up.
Observe the current AI market. Your words sounds like it reveals a lack of understanding of how financial markets work. UMA’s current situation shows that people don’t believe in it, but it all comes down to beliefs because they have value.
It’s still not yet priced because predict.fun did not reach (yet?) the league of Kalshi & PolyMarket.
Those numbers of dispute are those who reached UMA according to the article (thus reached a subjective oracle).
The ambition should be to be the standard, period. And thus winning everything (we were in position for doing that, as PolyMarket was just a humble small protocol that successfully grew).
I did an estimation, and it’s easy to refuse it but it makes sense to multiply because we can expect PM to have similars markets, thus similar disputes (in an naive why for sure but it can give a fair taste).
It doesn’t make sense as disputes are related to subjectivity and not a science.
Way way more than what is currently Kleros dealing with.
Kleros can win everything, even Chainlink (they are not that sophisticated). PM need speed, and even if a CFTC-regulated DCM is legally required to be the final adjudicator, it doesn’t mean (at all) there is no room for Kleros. Kleros’ final adjudicator are state justice systems btw. And some would argue that it’s good to let big actors to be final adjudicator (for PM compliance and adoption, which is a fair point) : there will be the whole question of aligning the adjudicator with the decision of a sufficiently respected subjective oracle (and therefore the opportunity cost for the adjudicator versus their role vis-à-vis the regulator).
either 30K or AGI
Really ? I do not. They must have escaped my notice : please share them with me, and for goodness’ sake regarding these initiatives, be just as precise/rigorous/demanding in your analyses, contributions, etc.
We should discuss whether or not humans will be replaced by AI; it would be more entertaining, even if it means staying on the path to disaster. It’s not fair to use “these cards” to the detriment of Kleros’s interests when Kleros, or at least one of its members involved in its development, never seems to care about this when it comes to resolving municipal disputes in South America (no doubt the citizens of these municipalities deal with disputes that are less likely to be resolved by AI than by predictive markets with large sums of money at stake) knowing also the amount of effort and years invested in working with them (I have arguments to suggest that we have been addressing these people since 2019).
It’s a fair (and good) point, my argument will be Seer should be a CM. But many things to discuss about it, i think the most important is discussing the strategic pivot, then discussing the legal engineering.
The most compelling narrative point for Kleros right now is that Kleros offers a legitimate human centric shelling point alternative to algorithmic AI decision making, that it actually expands democratic and collective subjective vocality in an age where algorithmic AI decision making is eroding or even replacing such.
I think the market is waiting for the moment when the value from the high market cap cryptos suddenly flows towards alts and microcaps, but suppose that it never happens, what then ? Why wouldn’t a relatively unregulated market simply tend toward market domination by a few large actors, with small actors constantly attempting to outcompete one another to be integrated into one of these big actor’s ecosystems? the European union was built upon the premises of Kojeve and Monnet, amongst others, that a collection of small states when banded together could resist the influences of large state actors and even act on the same footing as large state actors, and in fact it’s a founding premise of democracy. consequently I think an interesting usecase that has yet to be explored is using the Kleros platform to enable cross DAO coordination, for example,where there are two or more preference driven decision making DAOs interacting a truth driven shelling point decision making DAO (Kleros) can act as an impartial regulatory interlocutor such that although each preference driven DAO is self governed they can still coordinate collectively on subjective problems, for example the release of pooled funds contained within an escrow. This could in principle allow for federated DAOs acting collectively, which could for example enable collective liquidity management across crypto projects, ushering in a Friedman style economics. It would be a paradigm shift for sure, but it was a call to action paradigm shift which actually fuelled the massive growth of the cryptocurrency market from its inception all the way up until 2018.
The wider market today is strongly driven by flavour of the month sentiment, if we take this to be the case it follows that to capitalise on this Kleros needs to capitalise on the current sentiment, which is why i concur with the proposed pivot towards prediction markets, concerning regulatory acrobatics, forecasting is legally distinct from prediction, right now prediction markets pay out when a prediction is correct, with a forecast however a market would pay out when a forecast was accurate, in a prediction market people place bets upon an outcome, in a forecast market people are paid when their forecast is accurate. If prediction markets were an auxiliary rather than primary usecase for Kleros it might also help avoid any threat to undermining the founding principles of Kleros while also hedging against potential shifts in future market conditions.
I don’t think that we need to hire new devs. We need to prioritize the projects accordingly with proper milestones.
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hyperliquid has been dominant because they created a GOOD BUSINESS with an obsession with product, with REVENUE that goes back to holders. A sign the times are changing.
Yes, I think that’s what we need to go after as the end goal.
In my opinion, you failed to provide a BUSINESS CASE for the pivot and explain what the VALUE CAPTURE would look like in this discussion, so I’m opposing your proposal/observation. We shouldn’t be guided by vibes alone.
I agree about the prioritization, but instead of deciding to put all (or most) eggs in the prediction markets basket, I think we need to evaluate each initiative/project/vertical separately.
But the question I was asking for the devs is this one:
Just to make sure we are not losing opportunities because of that, and how much do we need to get to the point of being state of the art in all of the terms above.
Do we need to hire a Product Lead like we have for Curate? Hire (or reassign) one, two devs? Hire an LLM engineer to run bots that always settle markets correctly at the reality/optimistic oracle state? etc
Which parts are missing, what could be good to have?
If we know what the entire initiative would look like, then we can understand better if a pivot is needed, or if we just need to reorganize the pieces we have.
A very well-supported, analytical, demonstrative, and rigorous response to my previous post. I’m delighted to see the seriousness of a Kleros team member and am confident about the future.
A member who seriously demonstrates (although I admit the “in my opinion” clearly states it’s just an opinion, and everyone is free to have one) that I haven’t proven those incantations of “BUSINESS CASE” and “VALUE CAPTURE.” Long live Kleros!
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Why does he need to analyze when you’re the one proposing?
I believe he is just saying you haven’t provided a business case for the proposal. It is based on vibes, or narrative, not numbers; i.e. how many disputes will come to Kleros, how will the integration benefit the platform etc.
I think he is being quite reasonable actually. And that’s with me also agreeing with you that targeting PM integrations are important; mainly can we get Polymarket to send a subset of their market resolution to us so they can do market testing on UMA vs Kleros, it should be relatively easy with some of the new dev tools that have hit the market.
And @salgozino you’ll probably ban me again (ironic because I am pretty sure the founders of Kleros support free speech and the whole ethos of crypto is non-censorship), but I need to restate it, I find you to be very incompetent, I think it would be better for the community if you just didn’t talk, same as @jb1; but of course you are free to speak.
“A players hire A players; B players hire C players; and C players hire D players. It doesn’t take long to get to Z players. This trickle-down effect causes bozo explosions in companies.”
If you write with respect (as in this post) nobody is going to ban you. I support free speech as well, but with respect.
And I didn’t ban you in the past, maybe another admin was.
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Hello @KlerosJuror! I am part of the dev team.
I usually do not engage in this kind of conversations and prefer to focus on shipping, but I feel the comment doesn’t match my experience at all and is unfair with his work. I understand you may not agree with @salgozino public statements and have limited visibility of his work. After working closely with him for two years I do not know under which metric he can be consider incompetent. The amount of value he ships and enables others (including me) to ship is brutal.
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I would say that it’s because it’s a strategic pivot proposal, and any strategic pivot decision must be analyzed in the best interests of Kleros? Regarding that he rejects this industry as a pivot.
I disagree, i gave metrics, volumes & disputes are real on PM, all the signals say PM are here to stay and will increase, and the need of a subjective oracle exists as they need reliable and efficient way of secure their markets at the speed of information (which is basically what i’ve said in my messages).
@0xfcanela alright, my apologies @salgozino . Thanks for not blocking or banning me too.
@yadf1994 ok. Do you have actionable steps for the community to take so we can try your suggestion? Let’s estimate how much would need to be done, and what should be done.
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I think the whole Kleros community (Team + Holders) should gather and push for one big strategy/project to unite strenghts and push marketing/attention. Otherwise this project may just die “slowly” (not that slow as it’s running out of time from the treasury/revenue metrics).
On that note, I’m releasing software that allows AI agents to vote, submit evidence, and present arguments. It could serve as the foundation for an AI-powered court system. Perhaps we could collaborate on a broader push toward low-cost, accessible dispute resolution, with the software acting as the starting point for handling claims, reviewing evidence, and resolving disputes before they reach Kleros human courts.
It’ll be after I release the software to allow agents to transact on Ethereum. And it will be open-source too so feel free to champion it or whatever to your partners.
After that I need to do some onchain coding to give better safeguards to AI Agents, but for the AI court, it should be safe as is without any onchain changes
I think an AI level court (cheap, fast, but appealable to human courts) would be a major win.
And then of course. the polymarket partnership would be good too. (They should be open to at least a partial experiment of sending some of their disputes to Kleros, and they can partner with the Kleros team to get that done now, or if the implementation is too difficult, try the dispute-proxy software to quickly plug in. I disagree with Clement about the combining outcomes from oracles, just let them send a portion of their disputes to Kleros as a test, or even do both, UMA and Kleros and then decide which to trust, it’s probably easier software wise than anything else.)
Let’s figure out the plan then!
https://www.wsj.com/business/media/polymarket-social-media-bets-prediction-market-441cdeb5?st=HhTZY2
sirs, a case for kleros court to adjudicate?